What will we be thinking on December 31st, 2025?
- Stock Market?
- Interest Rates?
- Unemployment Rate?
- Inflation?
- Tariffs?
- Russia/Ukraine?
- Israel/Hamas?
- China?
- The Border?
- Energy: Gas, Oil, EV’s etc.?
- US National Debt?
- President Trump?
I wish I didn’t accidentally drop my crystal ball during 9/11, The Great
Recession and Covid. 3 cracks you’re out!!
My point, no matter your degree of logic, there are too many interconnected
variables to conclude.
Over the last 30 days, I have met with approximately 20 clients. It has been
interesting to hear their views after the election.
- Some voters are somewhat neutral, however leaning optimistic towards the economy.
- Some voters are quite positive, believing the economy will accelerate.
- Some voters believe, “please help us.”
To me, this sounds familiar, 4 years back, however with opposite views.
Expectations
- Retail sales have risen approximately 3.8% for the year ending November. Expectations, sales rise in 2025, however not as significant.
- Corporate Profits for the S&P 500 companies are projected to grow by over 14%.
- Business spending is expected to continue the upswing.
- The unemployment rate is expected to rise, however modestly. Hiring has started to cool.
- The US Treasury has over 6 trillion of securities to rollover in 2025.
- Everyone is anticipating and debating the impact of tariffs and other policy changes.
- Will the Federal Reserve lower rates 2, 4 times or not at all?

Interest rates always matter. Next year the US Treasury will have to auction off approximately 8 trillion in new debt. 6 trillion of prior issued debt will mature that needs to be rolled over and approximately 2 trillion to fund next years US Government deficit spending. This may place short-term pressure on rates if the auctions are not met with robust demand. From the above list of expectations, the need to raise 8 trillion from debt sales is close to certain. All else is speculation.
When considering portfolio management, careful consideration is given to Consumer Spending, the Unemployment rate trend, and corporate profits. All 3 are currently suggesting a healthy economy for 2025.
We may experience a higher level of stock and bond market volatility in 2025 compared to 2024. This is a reminder, as markets move in either direction, to stay calm. Having a well-diversified, allocated portfolio tailored to your current and future income needs should keep you sleeping at night.
Please feel free to share our Retirement Blog with friends, family, and
colleagues.
Have an enjoyable New Year and all the best for a healthy, happy, and
successful 2025.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.