Stocks Finish Summer Flat as Attention Turns to a Possible Fed Rate Hike


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Federal Reserve headquarters building in Washington, D.C., ahead of the September Fed rate hike decision.

Key Takeaways

  • Stocks finished the week close to flat, while emerging markets posted the strongest gain among the major indexes we track.
  • The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield moved higher and oil jumped sharply, adding to inflation and interest-rate concerns.
  • A stronger-than-expected jobs report has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may consider a rate hike at its September 16 meeting.
  • This week’s CPI and PPI inflation reports should receive even more attention than usual.

Stocks were relatively quiet last week, but the calm did not last. Stronger employment data, a sharp move higher in oil and renewed talk of a Fed rate hike all helped push market interest rates higher as investors looked ahead to the September 16 meeting.

Market Index Performance: Last Week & Year-to-Date

Dow Jones Industrial Average

S&P 500

NASDAQ Composite

Russell 2000

Foreign Stocks

Emerging Markets

4.784%

$91.22/barrell

A Quiet Week Until the Jobs Report

Last week’s news was relatively quiet until Friday’s employment report changed the conversation. The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs, well above estimates, and July’s total was revised higher by 21,000.

At the same time, oil moved aggressively higher. The combination of stronger job growth and higher energy prices pushed market interest rates higher and led many investors to believe the Fed may be more willing to raise rates at its September 16 meeting.

Job Cuts Still Bear Watching

One report that received less attention was the Challenger Job Cuts report. Employers announced 52,881 job cuts in August, a 58% increase from July. Even with that monthly jump, year-to-date layoffs remain at a four-year low.

Companies have announced approximately 530,000 job cuts through the first eight months of 2026, down 41% from the same period in 2025. Technology remains the most affected sector year-to-date, with more than 155,000 announced cuts.

The Fed is Feeling Pressure From Both Directions

The Federal Reserve is now dealing with competing pressures. Strong employment and higher oil prices argue for caution on inflation. At the same time, President Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Treasury Secretary Bessent have publicly pushed for lower rates.

The administration’s argument is straightforward: if the United States is viewed as one of the safest places in the world to invest, the federal government should not have to pay unusually high interest rates to borrow. Lower rates are also politically attractive because higher borrowing costs can slow economic activity.

For investors, the key point is that the Fed must weigh inflation, employment, energy prices and financial conditions at the same time.

The Week Ahead: Inflation Moves Back to Center Stage

This week, inflation data should receive additional scrutiny. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Inflation readings have been somewhat favorable over the last couple of months. We will now see whether that short-term trend of easing inflation continued in August.

A Personal Note

I would like to congratulate my wife, Michelle. September 9 marks her 30-year anniversary with Hessert Chevrolet. Having known her for 7½ years, I can certainly understand how valuable she has been to the organization. Congratulations, Michelle!

Social Security Educational Workshops

We will be offering two Social Security Education Workshops designed for those approaching retirement or still deciding when to claim Social Security benefits.

WHEN —

TIME —

WHERE —

TOPICS —

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

1:00 PM, or 6:30 PM

Community House of Moorestown – 16 East Main Street Moorestown NJ, 08057

Social Security rules, claiming strategies, retirement income planning, and tax strategies

The decision about when to claim Social Security can have a meaningful impact on your retirement income strategy. During the workshop, we will discuss:

  • Social Security rules and claiming considerations
  • Tax planning surrounding retirement income
  • Retirement income planning
  • Important issues to consider before filing for benefits.

If you have previously attended this workshop, please feel free to share this information with friends or family who may have not yet filed for Social Security benefits.

Thank you for reading!

Paul Levin, CFP®, ChFC®, RICP®1, TPCP®
Managing Principal


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

All market data sourced from The Wall Street Journal, Sep 4, 2026.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC. 

  1. RICP® conferred by The American College ↩︎
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Paul Levin, Retirement Financial Advisor and author of the Retirement Blog

Paul Levin, CFP®, ChFC®, RICP®*, TPCP®

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