{"id":187,"date":"2019-06-24T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2019-06-24T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/index.php\/2019\/06\/24\/rate-cuts-appear-to-be-coming-soon\/"},"modified":"2019-06-24T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2019-06-24T00:00:00","slug":"rate-cuts-appear-to-be-coming-soon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/rate-cuts-appear-to-be-coming-soon","title":{"rendered":"Rate Cuts Appear to be Coming Soon!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rate Cuts Appear to be Coming Soon!<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Upcoming Corporate Earnings Season!<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"The Federal Open Market Committee meeting certainly did NOT disappoint the markets.\u00a0 7 of the 17 Members indicated rate cuts of 50 basis points by year end.\u00a0 The stock and bond markets have this \u201cbaked in the cake\u201d, so any change to reducing rates could be a big negative for stocks and bonds, although I believe chances of that are fairly slim.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Rate cuts at this stage of the cycle are not common, especially with economic data still in positive territory.\u00a0 GDP in 2018 was 3%, increasing to 3.1% in first quarter 2019.\u00a0 We have unemployment sitting near a 50-year low and interest rates at rock bottom.\u00a0 The Fed apparently desires to place some insurance into the economy as some data has actually weakened.\u00a0 Last week, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey reported a negative 8.6 far below the expected positive 10 reading.\u00a0 This is the first negative in 3 years; however this certainly may be attributable to our Tariff situation with China.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Corporate Earnings Lurking Around the Corner<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Next month, we\u2019ll hear earnings reports.\u00a0 Some in the press are suggesting that earnings will be flattish without any improvement, which flies in the face of our Stock market.\u00a0 The question I\u2019ve been pondering is: what if we do get a new Trade agreement with China?\u00a0 What will that mean to the Federal Reserve\u2019s intention of reducing rates?\u00a0 Many believe the upcoming slowdown in Corporate Earnings growth is attributable to the tariff situation and Corporate CEO\u2019s becoming a bit cautious until they can see more clarity in the situation. \u00a0\u00a0So if the China issue moves to the rear view mirror (which I question anyway), does that mean the Fed may AGAIN change gears?<\/p>\n

And if so, what will be the impact? As always, time will tell!<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Last Week\u2019s Market Action<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

All boats rose last week, with the Dow Jones increasing 2.41%, the S&P 500 2.22% and the Russell 2000 up 1.8%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Over the pond, the MSCI EAFE International Index rose 2.22% and as expected the Emerging Market Stock Index led the way, rising 3.84%, mostly attributable to the US dollar losing value with our expected upcoming rate decreases.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bonds moved higher in value with the Barclay\u2019s Aggregate Bond Index up .44%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Oil moved up last week mostly because of the Iran situation.\u00a0 WTI was up 7.88%… that\u2019s a WOW!\u00a0 My question, how can it be a mistake to shoot down a drone?\u00a0 What should our reaction be to the drone shooting and the attacks on Oil Tankers?\u00a0 I simply don\u2019t know enough about foreign policy to make an educated opinion, as I cannot relate to their thinking.<\/p>\n

<\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n

Question of the Week…<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Which of the following are true regarding Oil?<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Oil is equal to 42 US gallons or 159 liters.<\/li>\n
  2. Gasoline makes up 45% of crude oil.<\/li>\n
  3. The US consumes more Oil than any other country.<\/li>\n
  4. Oil is used to create medicine, recreational sports items and cosmetics.<\/li>\n
  5. All of the Above.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Answer to last week\u2019s question\u2026!<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n

    What was the all-time highest Federal Funds Rate?<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. 12%<\/li>\n
    2. 20%<\/li>\n
    3. 11.5%<\/li>\n
    4. 9%<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      The answer is # 2!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Rate Cuts Appear to be Coming Soon! Upcoming Corporate Earnings Season! \u00a0 The Federal Open Market Committee meeting certainly did NOT disappoint the markets.\u00a0 7 of the 17 Members indicated rate cuts of 50 basis points by year end.\u00a0 The stock and bond markets have this \u201cbaked in the cake\u201d, so any change to reducing […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":188,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"post_statement":"","post_description":"","post_cta":"","post_button":"Read More","post_button_url":"","compliance_id":"","post_disclaimer":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/187"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=187"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/187\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/188"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}