{"id":2689,"date":"2022-12-12T21:07:25","date_gmt":"2022-12-12T21:07:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/?p=2689"},"modified":"2022-12-12T21:10:29","modified_gmt":"2022-12-12T21:10:29","slug":"recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/recession","title":{"rendered":"Recession?<\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Talk about an on-going debate<\/strong>?!\u00a0 The opinions of whether we\u2019ll have a recession<\/strong> and if so – how deep – are front and center!!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s hard NOT to believe we\u2019ll have a recession in 2023<\/strong>….\u00a0 Some companies have started to announce future layoffs<\/strong>, the Fed\u2019s going to raise rates<\/strong> at least a few more times, and consumer spending on goods<\/strong> is starting to slow, as are corporate profits.\u00a0 Not to mention the inverted yield curve<\/strong> — the 2-Year treasury yield has held well above the 10-Year yield for a significant amount of time.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Inflation<\/strong> (which of course is the catalyst for our current situation), has started to shift from rising costs of goods, to rising costs of services<\/strong>.\u00a0 Goods inflation has begun to moderate, as perhaps we are spent out from the pandemic.\u00a0 For “goods,” I\u2019m referring to housing, automobiles, household products, etc… I\u2019m starting to see a little relief at the grocery store.\u00a0 I also believe many of us are pausing before we spend!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week, <\/strong>we\u2019ll hear the November Consumer Price Index<\/strong> (CPI) report on Tuesday morning<\/strong> @ 8:30, followed by the Federal Reserve Rate hike<\/strong> announcement & explanation on Wednesday<\/strong>.\u00a0 These reports will definitely impact the equity &bond market direction through New Years Eve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Going forward, many believe the Fed will raise rates too high, pushing any recession more towards the longer-side.  Keep in mind, it takes several months for the economy to absorb the impact of a rate hike, or a rate reduction. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact is – no one knows with certainty if we\u2019ll have a recession<\/strong>, and if so, how deep and how long.\u00a0 A recent Goldman Sachs report suggests we can avoid a recession with a soft economic landing.\u00a0 Let\u2019s hope they are correct!!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Markets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week reversed the short-term positive momentum, with all major stock indexes down between 3 and 5%.\u00a0 The catalyst (last Friday\u2019s job report),<\/strong> suggested that wages rose higher<\/strong> than expected.\u00a0 This was debated all week, pushing the markets lower. <\/p>\n\n\n

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With a few weeks remaining in 2022, the S&P 500 is currently down (16.17%), the Nasdaq down (29.66%), the Russell 2000 down (18.94%), and the Dow off (5.95%).\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bonds as measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Index are down (11.84%).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the next couple of weeks, I\u2019ll be discussing portfolio positioning for 2023.<\/em> Stay tuned!!!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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As always, if any of your friends or family might benefit from this information, please feel free to\u00a0share!<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Talk about an on-going debate?!\u00a0 The opinions of whether we\u2019ll have a recession and if so – how deep – are front and center!! It\u2019s hard NOT to believe we\u2019ll have a recession in 2023….\u00a0 Some companies have started to announce future layoffs, the Fed\u2019s going to raise rates at least a few more times, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2690,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"post_statement":"","post_description":"","post_cta":"","post_button":"Read More","post_button_url":"","compliance_id":"","post_disclaimer":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2689"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2689"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2689\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2695,"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2689\/revisions\/2695"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2689"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2689"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retirementrefined.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}