For those joining us for the first time after last week’s Social Security Workshops, welcome. Each week, I try to separate the headlines from what actually matters to your retirement plan. This week, that means watching interest rates and oil — while also paying close attention to Medicare changes for 2027.

Market Index Performance: Last Week and Year-To-Date

The Fed Raised Rates — The Press Conference Mattered More

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25%, a move that was widely expected. The initial announcement did not create much of a market reaction. The pressure came during Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference. His comment that the Fed was “removing a dose of accommodation” caught investors’ attention and was interpreted as a signal that additional rate increases could still be ahead. The vote to raise rates was unanimous.

I do not view last week’s quarter-point increase — or even another quarter-point increase by itself — as problematic for the overall stock market. Higher rates can initially pressure small-cap and other rate-sensitive companies because borrowing costs rise. On the other hand, savers may benefit through higher yields on money markets, CDs and high-yield savings accounts.

The 10-Year Treasury and Oil Are the Bigger Variables

The 10-year U.S. Treasury finished the week around 5.00%. From here, the direction matters more than the exact number. If yields remain range-bound, I would expect the market impact to be manageable. A sustained move materially above 5.00%, however, would place additional pressure on borrowing costs and stock valuations.

Oil remains the wildcard. WTI crude continues to hover near $100 per barrel, and the national average diesel price reached roughly $6.50 per gallon over the weekend. Higher energy costs can work their way through transportation, goods and services and make the Fed’s inflation job more difficult.

This week is relatively light on major U.S. economic reports. That may leave markets trading on interest-rate expectations, oil and geopolitical headlines until the next round of economic data arrives in October. Third-quarter earnings season will also begin next month and could provide the next important fundamental catalyst.

Medicare Open Enrollment, Changes for 2027: Time to Pay Attention

If you have a Medicare Part D prescription drug plan or a Medicare Advantage plan, this is the time of year to pay attention. Plans can change premiums, deductibles, drug formularies, pricing tiers, pharmacy arrangements, provider networks and priorauthorization requirements from one year to the next.

Part D: The Out-of-Pocket Threshold Rises to $2,400

For 2027, the standard Part D annual out-of-pocket threshold will rise from $2,100 to $2,400.

CMS is also ending the temporary Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration for standalone prescription drug plans after 2026. That does not mean every premium will rise, but it makes annual comparison shopping even more important.

Medicare Open Enrollment runs from October 15 through December 7, with changes taking effect January 1, 2027. Review the Annual Notice of Change your plan sends this fall, then compare your medications, pharmacy choices and total estimated costs — not simply the monthly premium.

The easiest place to begin is the Medicare Plan Finder, where you can compare available plans using your prescriptions and preferred pharmacies.

Medicare Advantage: More Plan Changes Than Usual

Medicare Advantage is receiving additional attention this year. Recent research published using Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data found that 10% of Medicare Advantage enrollees in HMO and PPO plans faced forced disenrollment in 2026 because their plan exited the market or stopped serving their area.

That is a significant increase from the roughly 1.0% average annual forced disenrollment rate reported for 2018–2024. If your plan is changing or ending, do not ignore the notice you receive.

During Medicare Open Enrollment, you can move from one Medicare Advantage plan to another or return to Original Medicare.

If your Medicare Advantage plan leaves Medicare or stops serving your area and you return to Original Medicare, federal guaranteed-issue protections may give you a limited window to purchase certain Medigap policies without medical underwriting.

The timing rules matter, so keep your plan termination notice and act promptly if this applies to you.

The key message is simple: do not put Medicare on autopilot.

Use the Medicare Plan Finder each year and compare your options. Medicare is an important ingredient in a complete retirement income plan because healthcare costs affect both your monthly cash flow and your long-term spending needs.

Social Security Workshops

I would like to thank the nearly 100 people who attended last week’s Social Security Workshops and welcome the many new Retirement Report subscribers. I hope you find these weekly updates informative, practical, and easy to use as you make retirement decisions.

Our final Social Security Workshop of the year will be held Wednesday, October 21. Details will follow.

Thank you for reading. Please feel free to share the Weekly Retirement Report with family, friends and colleagues.

Paul Levin, CFP®, ChFC®, RICP®¹, TPCP®
Managing Principal

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The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

All market data sourced from The Wall Street Journal, Sep 19, 2026.

1. RICP conferred by The American College ↩︎