As we begin 2026, investors, retirees, and pre-retirees are navigating a landscape filled with opportunity and uncertainty. Markets, interest rates, taxes, and technology will all play a critical role in shaping outcomes this year.
Below are several themes we are watching closely, along with a timely tax-season reminder that often gets overlooked: protecting your tax return and personal data from identity theft.
Key Questions That May Shape Markets in 2026
Each new year brings familiar questions, plus a few unexpected curveballs. As we look ahead, some of the most important drivers for both the stock market and the bond market include:
- Will the massive investments in artificial intelligence translate into meaningful productivity and profitability?
- Which industries stand to benefit the most from AI adoption?
- Will hiring accelerate, or will labor markets remain sluggish?
- Will consumers continue spending at current levels?
- What is the path of the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield?
- Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in 2026, and if so, by how much?
- How will the U.S. dollar perform relative to foreign currencies?
- Will corporate profits continue to grow?
- How will the conflicts in Venezuela continue to play out, and what effect will the ongoing situation have on the markets?
- How will tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and Supreme Court decisions impact markets?
- What political shifts could emerge following mid-term elections?
In most years, corporate earnings and interest rates are the dominant factors. Unexpected developments, such as last year’s tariff surprises, often take time to fully work through the economy and markets.
A Practical Cybersecurity Guide for Retirees and Pre-Retirees
While markets tend to drive the headlines, tax season creates a different kind of risk, one that can be especially disruptive for retirees and higher-income households: identity theft.
A tax return includes Social Security numbers, income details, and bank information. That combination makes it a valuable target for cybercriminals, particularly early in the filing season.
Why Tax Returns Are a Prime Target
Stolen tax data can be used to:
- File fraudulent returns and steal refunds
- Open credit accounts
- Attempt access to retirement or investment accounts
- Create identity theft issues that can take months, or years, to resolve
Once compromised, recovery is often slow and frustrating.
A Cybersecurity Checklist for Tax Season
1. File your tax return as early as possible
Fraudsters often file fake returns early in the tax season. Filing promptly reduces the chance that someone can file first using your identity.
Key takeaway: Early filing narrows the window of opportunity for scammers.
2. Use secure tax software or a trusted tax professional
Whether you file yourself or work with a CPA, focus on secure handling of documents:
- Use encrypted portals, not email, to exchange documents
- Avoid emailing tax returns or sensitive attachments
- Use reputable tax software with strong security protocols
- If your advisor provides a secure document vault, use it.
- For your convenience, Retirement Refined offers a secure portal with encrypted document upload. This is our preferred method for transmission of your tax return. Please contact us if you need assistance locating or using the secure document portal.
3. Obtain an IRS Identity Protection PIN (IP PIN)
One of the strongest defenses against tax identity theft is an IRS Identity Protection PIN (IP PIN).
What is an IP PIN?
- A unique six-digit code
- Required to file your tax return once enrolled
- Prevents anyone else from filing using your Social Security number
Step-by-step: how to obtain an IRS IP PIN
- Visit the IRS website and select “Get an IP PIN” on the Identity Protection PIN page.
- Verify your identity by creating or logging into an IRS online account and confirming your identity using personal and financial information.
- Receive your IP PIN immediately online once verified (valid for the calendar year).
- Store it securely in a password manager or encrypted file. Do not email or text it.
- Use it every year since a new IP PIN is issued annually and must be included on your return.
If online verification is not possible, you can request an IP PIN by mail or verify your identity in person, but this can take several weeks.
4. Strengthen passwords and enable two-factor authentication
- Use unique passwords for financial and tax-related accounts
- Enable two-factor authentication (2FA) whenever available
- Avoid storing passwords in browsers or handwritten notes
- A reputable password manager can improve both security and convenience
5. Secure your devices and home network
- Keep devices and software up to date
- Use reputable antivirus protection
- Avoid accessing tax data on public Wi-Fi
Cybersecurity starts at home.
6. Watch for tax-related scams
- The IRS never initiates contact by email, text, or social media
- Be cautious of urgent refund or penalty messages
- Never click unfamiliar links or download unknown attachments
When in doubt, verify independently.
7. Monitor credit and IRS activity
- Review credit reports annually
- Watch for unexpected IRS notices
- Consider a credit freeze for added protection
Early detection reduces long-term disruption.
Why This Matters for Retirees
Required minimum distributions, Social Security benefits, and investment income can make retirees especially vulnerable. Tax identity theft can delay refunds, disrupt cash flow, and create unnecessary stress.
Prevention is far easier than recovery.
Final Thoughts
As we begin 2026, staying proactive in markets, tax planning, and cybersecurity remains essential. Simple steps like early filing and obtaining an IRS IP PIN can meaningfully reduce risk and help protect your financial life.
If you have questions about tax planning, secure document handling, or retirement income strategies, give us a call.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
