By Paul Levin, CFP®, ChFC®, RICP®
As we approach the final stretch of 2025, Wall Street firms are beginning to publish their outlooks for 2026. Broadly speaking, the consensus points toward modest equity gains and a relatively calm bond market: a welcome change after a year full of surprises.
That said, long experience suggests caution is always warranted when markets appear too comfortable.
2026 S&P 500 Year-End Targets
According to year-end outlooks published by The Wall Street Journal and Barron’s, major investment banks are forecasting the following S&P 500 targets for 2026:
|
Firm |
2026 Target |
|
Deutsche Bank: |
8,000 |
|
Morgan Stanley: |
7,800 |
|
Wells Fargo: |
7,800 |
|
Citi: |
7,700 |
|
Goldman Sachs: |
7,600 |
|
J.P. Morgan: |
7,500 |
|
UBS: |
7,500 |
|
Bank of America: |
7,100 |
Most firms publish a base-case, bullish, and bearish scenario. LPL Financials’ fair-value base-case estimate currently ranges between 7,300 and 7,400.
Interest Rate Expectations
Looking to fixed income, many strategists expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to trade within a 3.75%–4.25% range throughout 2026, reinforcing expectations for a relatively stable bond environment.
Perspective Matters
While forecasts can be useful for context, I do not make predictions about where market indexes will go. Decades of experience reinforce that what matters most is:
- Ensuring portfolios align with your current income needs
- Matching investments to your time horizon
- Maintaining discipline around risk tolerance
These principles stand prudent for those approaching retirement or currently retired!
Market Performance – Last Week
Markets were mixed last week:
|
Index |
Weekly Change |
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average: |
(0.59%) |
|
S&P 500: |
+0.10% |
|
Nasdaq Composite: |
+0.37% |
|
Russell 2000: |
(1.03%) |
|
Foreign Stocks: |
(0.89%) |
|
Emerging Markets: |
(0.77%) |
The 10-year U.S. Treasury ended Friday yielding 4.149%.
Inflation Update: CPI Comes in Tame
Markets traded lower early in the week before a notably calm Consumer Price Index (CPI) report provided relief.
- Headline CPI: +2.0%
- Core CPI: +2.0%
- Annualized headline inflation: 2.7%
- Annualized core inflation: 2.6%
Both headline and core inflation continue to show signs of deceleration: an encouraging development as we move toward 2026. Can we trust the numbers after the government shutdown?
Year-End Countdown
There are just seven trading days left in 2025. Many investors are hoping the well-known Santa Claus Rally makes an appearance this time around.
As always, feel free to share this Weekly Retirement Blog with friends, family, or colleagues who may find it helpful.
Thank you for reading,
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
All market data sourced from The Wall Street Journal, December 19, 2025.
