U.S. market indexes fell again last week as investors attempted to digest a complicated mix of issues: rising yields, corporate profits, massive corporate spending and debt levels, renewed tensions with Iran, spiking oil prices and tariffs back in the news.
Market Performance: Last Week & Year-To-Date
| INDEX | LAST WEEK | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | (0.50%) | +7.95% |
| S&P 500 | (0.77%) | +8.18% |
| NASDAQ Composite | (2.28%) | +7.30% |
| Russell 2000 | (0.97%) | +18.20% |
| Foreign Stocks | +0.06% | +7.69% |
| Emerging Markets | +0.09% | +15.79% |
| Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond | (0.85%) | (0.68%) |
| Bloomberg Municipal Bond | (1.22%) | +0.26% |
| 10-YEAR U.S. TREASURY 4.681% continued moving higher | WTI CRUDE OIL $90.47/barrel up 8.56% last week |
Oil—one of the primary reasons rates are increasing—jumped 8.56% last week and is now higher by 55.96%. WTI crude finished the week at $90.47 per barrel.
AI Spending: Good for Tomorrow, Expensive Today
Last week featured solid earnings. However, the amount of corporate spending pouring into Artificial Intelligence is spooking the markets. Higher spending today may be positive for profits down the road, but the added capital costs—and the interest paid on money being borrowed—could weigh on profits in the shorter term.
Oil, Iran, and Rising Bond Yields
Helping drive oil higher was news that Iran-backed Houthi militants attacked ships traveling through the Red Sea. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced countries to attempt to use alternative shipping routes, including the Red Sea. The progress that appeared to be developing may have been pushed backward, at least for the time being.
The combination of consistently higher oil, massive corporate borrowing and the overall fear surrounding the U.S. debt situation has bond yields at or near their highs for the year. It is challenging to see any of these pressures changing in the near term, which is influencing us to revisit bond allocations within our investment models.
Tariffs Back in the News
On the tariff front, the U.S. announced a new set of tariffs to replace those currently phasing out following the prior Supreme Court ruling. The 10% to 12.5% tariffs apply to many trading partners, with Brazil and Canada facing higher duties.
Week Ahead: Corporate Profits Take Center Stage
Can corporate profits propel the stock markets higher? Increasing profits are typically the key, and this week we will hear from several bellwethers:
| • Amazon | • Coca-Cola |
| • Apple | • Ford |
| • Meta | • Exxon Mobil and Chevron |
| • Microsoft | • Boeing |
| • Visa and Mastercard | • UPS |
The Economic Calendar
In addition to corporate profits, this week will feature:
- Federal Reserve meeting on July 28–29. Markets are pricing in a 40% chance of a rate hike. I think the Fed will leave rates flat for now.
- The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), which may reflect lower oil pricing in June—so it may be a yawner.
- The first of three estimates for U.S. second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Consumer Discretionary is Worth Watching
Worth keeping an eye on the Consumer Discretionary sector. Last week, the sector fell 6.31% and is now down 8.23% for 2026. Continued consumer spending is critically important for our economy and the stock markets—especially as investors question future AI spending and the benefits that spending may ultimately produce.
Final Thoughts
Markets are dealing with plenty at once: higher oil prices, rising bond yields, heavy corporate borrowing, tariffs and questions about the return on AI spending.
Corporate profits remain the key. Strong earnings can support stock prices, but investors may continue focusing on how much companies are spending today—and whether those investments can translate into higher profits tomorrow.
At the same time, the bond market is being pressured by oil, corporate borrowing and concerns surrounding the U.S. debt situation.
| THE BOTTOM LINE I want to re-mention this: volatility in both directions should continue to be expected in both the stock and bond markets. |
As always, thank you for taking a few minutes each week to read our Retirement Report.
Until next week, stay informed and enjoy the journey to & through retirement.
Paul Levin, CFP®, ChFC®, RICP®, TPCP®
Managing Principal | Retirement Refined, LLC
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
All market data sourced from The Wall Street Journal, July 24, 2026.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC.
