After attempting to stabilize early in the week, markets came under renewed pressure following geopolitical developments, including reports of potential troop deployments to Iran and a proposed $200 billion war-related spending request. These events introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty, which investors responded to quickly.
Market Performance (Weekly / Year-to-Date)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: (2.26%) / (5.27%)
- S&P 500: (1.92%) / (4.98%)
- NASDAQ: (2.17%) / (6.86%)
- Russell 2000: (1.95%) / (2.02%)
- Foreign Markets: (2.96%) / (2.69%)
- Emerging Markets: (2.10%) / 1.64%
Bond yields moved notably higher, reflecting concerns that rising oil prices could translate into renewed inflation pressures. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury closed the week at 4.386%, a level that continues to challenge both equity valuations and borrowing costs.
Breaking News This Morning:
Trump ordered our military to postpone additional strikes as talks have progressed over the last 48 hours. Is this a step in right direction? Is this a way to temper the markets as futures were down again prior to the announcement?
Revisiting Our 2026 Expectations
Coming into 2026, expectations were grounded in a relatively stable backdrop:
- Bond yields remaining range-bound, supporting income-focused strategies
- Equity markets delivering mid-to-high single-digit returns
- Continued business investment, particularly in AI infrastructure
- Consumer spending moderating but remaining resilient
- Tax-related liquidity providing a short-term economic tailwind
While many of these structural supports remain in place, near-term uncertainties—particularly geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures—have introduced questions around corporate profit growth for the year.
That said, it’s important to recognize that these underlying drivers have not disappeared. Innovation spending, especially around AI, and a still-active consumer base continue to provide a foundation that could support recovery once visibility improves.
Market Volatility – Context Matters
Investors should always expect periodic pullbacks and corrections as part of normal market behavior. These are often driven by shifts in supply and demand, sentiment, or external shocks.
The current pullback is more notable given its catalyst, but it is not without precedent. Markets have historically navigated through geopolitical events, often stabilizing once uncertainty begins to clear—even before full resolution.
Economic Data and Fed Outlook
Last week brought key insights from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Rate cuts that markets had previously anticipated are now likely delayed, as the Fed continues to monitor inflation trends closely.
Additionally, February’s Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected—importantly, before the escalation of current geopolitical tensions. This suggests that inflation pressures were already present, and recent developments may only reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance.
Looking Ahead – What Will Move Markets Forward?
Clarity remains the missing ingredient.
Markets typically respond more favorably to known risks than unknown ones. Until investors gain better visibility into the trajectory and duration of the current conflict, volatility is likely to persist.
However, there are a few constructive considerations:
- Markets tend to bottom before the end of uncertainty, not after
- Stronger companies with solid balance sheets often emerge from these periods in a stronger competitive position
While the duration of the conflict will play a key role in determining near-term direction, history suggests that markets are resilient and adaptive over time.
Final Thoughts
The current environment is understandably unsettling, and the path forward may remain uneven in the near term. However, it is equally important to maintain perspective.
Economic fundamentals are not uniformly weak, innovation continues, and long-term investment principles remain intact. Periods like this often test discipline—but they can also set the stage for future potential opportunity.
As always, we remain focused on navigating these conditions thoughtfully, balancing risk with long-term objectives.
Please feel free to share the Weekly Retirement Report with friends, colleagues, and neighbors.
Thank you for reading!
Paul Levin, CFP®, ChFC®, RICP®, TPCP®
Managing Principal
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
All market data sourced from The Wall Street Journal, March 20, 2026.
