Markets finished modestly higher last week, helped by another remarkable NVIDIA earnings report. But Friday’s Jackson Hole speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh reminded investors that inflation, interest rates, and the Fed’s next move remain very much in play.
Key Takeaways
- Stocks finished the week modestly higher, although small-cap and international stocks struggled.
- NVIDIA once again demonstrated the enormous amount of money flowing into Artificial Intelligence.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh made it clear that inflation remains his primary concern.
- Friday’s August employment report will be closely scrutinized.
- We have several important dates ahead, including three remaining Federal Reserve meetings, Medicare Open Enrollment, and the mid-term elections.
- Six months into the U.S.-Iran conflict, oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz remain important risks for investors to watch.
Market Overview
It was another positive week for most of the major stock market averages, although Friday’s trading reminded us how quickly investor sentiment can change.
Stocks moved higher following NVIDIA’s outstanding earnings report, only to give back some of those gains after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a fairly tough message on inflation during his much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech.
For the week, the Dow, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ all finished higher. Small-cap stocks, however, pulled back.
Once again, the market continues balancing two very different stories:
- On one side, corporate profits remain strong, Artificial Intelligence investment continues at an extraordinary pace, and the economy has remained resilient.
- On the other, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target, interest rates remain elevated, and geopolitical uncertainty continues.
That combination is one more reason I continue to believe investors should expect periods of volatility even when the longer-term market trend remains constructive.
Market Index Performance: Last Week and Year-to-Date
| INDEX | LAST WEEK | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | +0.49% | +11.39% |
| S&P 500 | +0.45% | +12.61% |
| NASDAQ Composite | +0.83% | +13.58% |
| Russell 2000 | (1.33%) | +19.97% |
| Foreign Stocks | (0.57%) | +12.07% |
| Emerging Markets | (0.04%) | +22.63% |
| Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond | +0.46% | +0.11% |
| Bloomberg Municipal Bond | (0.06%) | +0.58% |
10-YEAR U.S. TREASURY
4.73%
unchanged from last week
WTI CRUDE OIL
$83.44/barrel
down slightly from last week ($86.64)
The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield ended the week at approximately 4.73%, little changed for the week despite a noticeable move higher following Chairman Warsh’s Friday comments.
WTI crude oil eased to approximately $83.44 per barrel, down from $86.64 the prior week.
NVIDIA Delivers Another Remarkable Quarter
At this point, it is becoming difficult to find strong enough adjectives to describe NVIDIA’s growth.
The company reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, an increase of 106% from a year ago. Net income reached approximately $59.7 billion, also more than double the year-prior figure.
Think about those numbers for a moment:
Ninety-six billion dollars of revenue in three months.
Nearly sixty billion dollars of profit.
NVIDIA ended the week with a market value of more than $5.2 trillion. Yes, that is trillion.
Artificial Intelligence continues to be one of the primary forces driving both business investment and the stock market. How much further can NVIDIA and the broader AI sector move? Nobody knows.
For the time being, an enormous amount of money continues flowing into AI infrastructure, data centers, semiconductors, software, and related technologies. But as I’ve discussed before, investors will want to see that these enormous investments translate into sustainable profits throughout the broader AI ecosystem.
NVIDIA is certainly doing its part. The question is how many other companies will ultimately be able to do the same.
Chairman Warsh Delivers a Clear Message at Jackson Hole
Friday’s other major event was Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
His message was fairly straightforward:
Inflation remains too high, and the Federal Reserve is not declaring victory.
Warsh reiterated that the Fed’s 2.00% inflation objective remains a firm target. He also emphasized that the Fed should rely less on forward guidance and instead make decisions based on the economic conditions that exist when decisions actually need to be made.
I actually believe that makes sense.
The economy changes too quickly for the Federal Reserve to promise what it will do three or six months from now.
Chairman Warsh also pointed out that the Fed’s preferred PCE measure of inflation remains well above its 2.00% target. His comments were interpreted as more hawkish than some investors expected, and expectations for another interest-rate increase moved higher following the speech.
That does not mean a rate-hike is guaranteed. It does mean investors should stop assuming the next move in interest rates automatically has to be lower.
As always, the incoming economic data will matter.
And this week, we get plenty of employment data.
The Job Market Takes Center Stage
This week’s economic data will be dominated by employment.
Tuesday: JOLTS – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
This report gives us a closer look at available jobs, hiring, and how frequently workers are quitting.
Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts Report
This report tracks announced layoffs and can provide additional insight on whether businesses are becoming more cautious about hiring.
Friday: August Employment Report
This will probably be the most closely watched report of the week.
July’s employment report showed that nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000 jobs, while unemployment remained relatively low at 4.1%. Health care continued adding workers, while local government education and retail employment declined.
The overall job market still appears relatively stable, but hiring has clearly slowed. That’s important.
The Federal Reserve has two primary responsibilities: maintaining price stability, and supporting maximum employment. These are together known as the Fed’s “dual mandate”.
Right now, Chairman Warsh appears more concerned about inflation. A meaningfully weaker employment report could complicate that picture.
Key Financial Dates for the Rest of 2026
We’re entering the final four months of what has already been a very eventful year. Here are several dates worth keeping on the calendar:
Upcoming Federal Reserve Meetings
Three Federal Reserve meetings remain for 2026:
- September 15th-16th
- October 26th-27th
- December 8th-9th
The September and December meetings will also include updated economic projections from Federal Reserve officials.
Medicare Open Enrollment
For Medicare beneficiaries, this is the annual opportunity to review and make certain changes to Medicare Advantage and prescription drug coverage for the following year.
As I remind clients every year, plans and drug formularies can change. Don’t simply assume that what worked this year will automatically remain the best fit next year.
Midterm Elections
November 3rd
As we get closer to Election Day, expect plenty of headlines.
From an investment perspective, we’ll focus on the issues that matter to markets and retirement planning: taxes, spending, regulation, interest rates, and economic policy.
Third Quarter Earnings
Third-quarter earnings season will begin in earnest around the middle of October.
Given today’s stock valuations, investors will once again be expecting Corporate America to deliver.
Six Months Into the US-Iran Conflict
And, of course, we cannot ignore the continuing conflict between the United States and Iran.
We have now reached the six-month mark.
One of the more surprising developments has been the resilience of financial markets despite a conflict that has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and contributed to considerable volatility in oil prices.
Oil has moved back and forth based on military developments, negotiations, and daily headlines.
From an investment standpoint, that is what a continue watching most closely.
A sustained raise in oil prices could put additional upward pressure on inflation, potentially influencing both consumer spending and Federal Reserve policy.
So far, the conflict has not derailed the Artificial Intelligence trade or overall corporate profitability.
That does not mean investors should become complacent.
Geopolitical situations can change quickly, which is another reason we build portfolios around diversification and long-term planning rather than trying to predict tomorrow’s headline.
Social Security Educational Workshops
We will be offering two Social Security Education Workshops designed for those approaching retirement or still trying to decide when it may be most beneficial to claim Social Security benefits.
DATE
TIMES
WHERE
TOPICS
Tuesday, September 15, 2026
1:00 PM, or 6:30 PM
Community House of Moorestown – 16 East Main Street Moorestown NJ, 08057
Social Security rules, claiming strategies, retirement income planning, and tax strategies
The decision about when to claim Social Security can have a very meaningful impact on your retirement income strategy.
During the workshop, we’ll discuss:
- Social Security rules and claiming considerations
- Retirement income planning
- Tax planning surrounding retirement income
- Important issues to consider before filing for benefits
To reserve your seat, please call Colette Kopp at (856) 354-3200 x 205.
If you have previously attended this workshop, please feel free to share this information with friends or family who may have not yet filed for Social Security benefits.r
Final Thoughts
NVIDIA’s earnings remind us just how powerful the Artificial Intelligence cycle has become.
Chairman Warsh’s speech reminds us that strong markets do not mean every economic problem has been solved.
And Friday’s employment report will remind us once again that markets are continually adjusting to new information.
That’s investing.
There will always be something to worry about, something to become excited about, and something nobody saw coming.
Our job isn’t to predict every one of those developments.
Our job is to maintain a disciplined plan, remain properly diversified, manage the risks we can control, and avoid allowing short-term headlines to dictate long-term financial decisions.
For those approaching or already enjoying retirement, that discipline becomes even more important.
As always, thank you for taking a few minutes each week to read our Retirement Report, I sincerely appreciate your continued confidence and the opportunity to be a part of your retirement journey.
If you know someone who may find this week’s report helpful, please feel free to share it with them.
Until next week, stay informed and enjoy the journey to and during retirement.
Paul Levin, CFP®, ChFC®, RICP®1, TPCP®
Managing Principal
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
All market data sourced from The Wall Street Journal, Aug 7, 2026.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC.
- RICP® conferred by The American College ↩︎
