Wow, that was quick! The first half of 2021 is about to be seen in the rear-view mirror.
We started the year with a 10 Year US Treasury yield @ .91%. Added to the cocktail shaker was a vaccine distribution process moving quickly thus reopening our economy, massive stimulus in pockets to spend, warm weather, pent-up demand and of course, never forget the old/newer adage, “never fight the Fed!”
We witnessed the US Economy expand at historic rates, albeit from a dismal floor, the 10 Year Rate rising to 1.53%, the price of Oil rising from $48.52 at the start the year, to $74 last Friday.
Lumber issues, chip shortages and supply constraints have pushed the price of homes, automobiles and many other items much higher, very quickly.
This Friday we’ll hear the all-important jobs report for June. Expectations are for a large number. Experts are expecting 700,000 jobs to be added. Very important is the “wage” part of the report. Corporations do have room for increased wages based on current profit margins, however that margin can shrink quickly, faster than it expanded.
Most are believing, including the all-important bond market, that inflation will in fact become transitory. I certainly hope so. I do believe that some of the current spending will in fact slow down, as people are no longer receiving free money to spend as desired. I would not be surprised if we end up with an annual inflation rate somewhere between 2.5 and 3% per year after this period is over. We’ve been under 2% on average for many years, so a little reversion to the mean should be expected. Keep in mind, we have a huge “Millennial” generation ranging in age from 24 to 40. This generation is larger than the baby boomers and they also like to spend money. This could line up well for our economy a few years down the road when all of this (and what is to come), is truly in the rear-view!!!
(Don’t Guess, Just Diversify)
You should overweight Growth, you should overweight Value? This has been a common debate this year and many years in the past.
Thus far in 2021, “value stocks” have outperformed “growth stocks.” The average US Large Value category is up 17.55% with US Large Growth up 11.89%. So far in June, which only has 3 days remaining, the opposite has happened with US Large Growth up 5.24% for the month and US Large Value down (.72%)
I learned many years ago, from experience, do not attempt to overweight/underweight OR time the markets. However, diversification, asset allocation, rebalancing and patience seem to consistently work well, however certainly do not rise to the top of the TV, Internet etc. A little boring to watch people talk daily, about fundamental investing.
If you want or need excitement, I suggest to look elsewhere, not at your nest egg!
A bipartisan committee has approved a $1.2 Trillion Infrastructure bill that intends to disperse the funds over an 8-year period. Now the fun! The House and the Senate will now infuse their combined wisdom to debate what is right for America. This should make for much media rhetoric!
Last week our markets soared as the Dow increased 3.44%, the S&P 500 2.76%, the Nasdaq Composite 2.36% and the Small Cap Russell 2000 up 4.33%.
Over the pond, foreign stocks rose 1.51% and Emerging Market Stocks 1.42%
The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is down (2.00%) year-to-date as rates moved higher from .91% to 1.53% on our 10 Year US Treasury.