My Thoughts….

The S&P 500 hit it’s current all-time high on January 3, 2022, reaching 4797.  As of last Friday, the index closed @ 3901.36.  The quick drop of 18.7% left the index just shy of closing in on the definition of a “bear” market.  A close of 20% from the S&P index high, technically classifies as […]

<strong>Inflation Peaking?</strong>

Is Inflation in the “peaking” process?  The easy answer is yes, however the challenging question is when will the process be over? Last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April showed the first drop in eight months.  The core CPI number reported was 8.3%, which is down from 8.6% in March.  Many investors were […]

Inflation Data

Over the next few months, the most important day for the economy and markets will be around the 11th of each month.  That is when inflation data from the prior month is reported. This Wednesday, May 11th, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from April will be released.  The reading for March was 8.5%.  The Fed’s […]

3 Issues Front & Center

3 issues are clearly front and center!: The Federal Reserve & Inflation The Russia/Ukraine War and it’s impact on the European Economy The Covid Lockdown in China This week, Chairman Powell will announce a rate hike, most likely .50%.  He will also announce the beginning of letting the balance sheet run off, meaning the massive […]

What Else?  The Fed!

The S&P 500 was having an ok week through last Wednesday, until Fed Chair Jerome Powell said rates will be raised by .50% at the May Federal Reserve Meeting.  This should not have come as a surprise as the .50% increase has been in the news for a few weeks.  Why did “known” news still […]

Bond Rates Rising… Where’s the End?

This morning, the US 10-Year US Treasury is yielding 2.818%.  The US 2-Year Treasury is yielding 2.46%.  Just 3.5 months ago, the 10-Year was yielding 1.5% and the 2-Year .73%.  Talk about a fast rate rise!! I can’t help but speculate how much inflation and interest rate hikes has the bond market already priced in?  […]

Thank you “Scottie & Tiger”

What a wonderful diversion.  25-year-old Scottie Scheffler embracing his wife after winning the 2022 Masters Golf Tournament in Augusta, GA….  Refreshing to see such a youthful, cool-collected, classy man win perhaps the world’s most prestigious golf tournament.  I must say, it gave me that deeply warm feeling inside, about all that’s right with our country.  […]

Growth/Recession/The Markets

So where is the economy heading in the short term?  Are we entering a period of decelerating growth?  Are we heading toward a recession? Decelerating growth appears to be a certainty.  We are already witnessing a slow down of the red-hot housing market.  With mortgage rates on the rise, how can one expect differently?  In […]

How High Will Rates Go?

The 10-Year US Treasury ended last week with a yield of 2.49%, up from 1.50% on January 1, 2022.  A 1% rise in 3 months is obviously very quick. Market interest rates are certainly pricing in Federal Reserve rate hikes (way ahead of the actual occurrence), which is somewhat typical.  I have to wonder, will […]