Stock Market Update: Strong Rally Pushes Indexes Positive for 2026
Markets raced higher last week, supported by a combination of optimism surrounding Middle East ceasefire developments, favorable earnings from financial companies, and tamer-than-expected wholesale inflation data.
Last week’s performance pushed the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ into positive territory for 2026: a meaningful shift in sentiment following the recent volatility.
Market Index Performance: Last Week and YTD
| Index | Last Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 3.14% | 2.83% |
| S&P 500 | 4.47% | 4.03% |
| NASDAQ Composite | 6.55% | 5.00% |
| Russell 2000 | 5.42% | 11.74% |
| Foreign Stocks (ex. US) | 2.07% | 4.33% |
| Emerging Markets | 4.33% | 16.15% |
The 10-year US Treasury yield declined to 4.248%, as bond buying increased and inflation expectations decreased.
Geopolitical Update: Iran Conflict and Oil Market Volatility
The Iran conflict remains a primary driver of recent market performance, as investors continue to look ahead toward a potential resolution.
Markets closed last Friday on a strong note following reports that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open. This development sent oil prices sharply lower, with WTI crude falling over 9% to close the week at $85.52 per barrel, down from $99.08 at the start of the week.
However, as of Saturday, reports suggest Iran may be reconsidering or changing that position; highlighting just how fluid the situation remains.
Between Sunday morning as I write this blog and when the market opens at 9:30am on Monday, developments can change quickly. As we’ve noted in prior weekly market updates, geopolitical headlines can drive short-term volatility.
Corporate Earnings: Strong Start with More to Come
Earnings season began with strength, as major financial institutions, including JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citi Bank, and PNC, reported positive results, strong loan growth, and improving credit quality. In short, little to dislike.
This week, earnings season shifts into second gear with reports expected from:
- Tesla
- Intel
- American Express
- Cleveland Cliffs
- Boeing
- AT&T
- GE Aerospace
- 3M
- UnitedHealth
- American Airlines
- Proctor & Gamble
Expectations remain positive, and continued earnings growth could help support further market gains—particularly if forward guidance remains constructive. An ongoing war certainly has the potential to change the outlook.
Inflation Update: Wholesale Prices Show Signs of Cooling
A key concern surrounding the conflict has been its impact on inflation, particularly through energy prices.
There was a modest bit of good news last week: The Producer Price Index (PPI), excluding food and energy, declined by 0.1%, while the headline number rose 0.5%, in line with expectations.
If the conflict continues to deescalate and oil prices trend lower, we could see additional easing in inflation pressures—an important development for both markets and for your portfolio.
Are We Out of the Woods?
Crystal balls are for fairy tales.
At this point, we can only hope for a favorable and timely resolution to the current conflict; one that ensures the free flow of oil and reduces geopolitical risk.
Could the situation still turn negative? Of course.
Either way, upcoming midterm elections will likely play a roll in pushing for a sooner-than-later resolution.
Social Security & Our National Debt
It is no secret that, according to the latest Social Security Trust Fund Report (2024). Reserves are projected to be depleted by 2033. At that point, benefits would rely solely on incoming payroll taxes, with projections suggesting that payouts could be reduced to approximately 81%.
We expect an updated report later this spring.
In last week’s retirement report, we discussed a current proposal to eliminate the earnings test, allowing individuals to receive benefits before full retirement age without penalties while continuing to work.
This week, The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget introduced a “Six-Figure Limit” plan, proposing to cap Social Security benefits at $100,000 annually for couples and $50,000 annually for individuals. In my view, this would have little meaningful impact on long-term solvency.
Real reform is needed.
A prior proposal—the Social Security 2100 Act—would increase the amount of wages subject to FICA taxes. Currently, the Social Security wage cap is $184,500 for 2026. Under this proposal, an additional tax tier would begin at $400,000. Going forward, the normal annual increase in the wage base would in time capture 100% of wages being subject to the FICA tax. This proposal, at least on paper, moved the solvency of Social Security out over 80 years forward.
As a small business owner required to match payroll taxes, I certainly don’t love the idea—however meaningful reform will require some version of shared responsibility.
For those evaluating when and how to claim benefits, thoughtful Social Security planning remains critical.
My preference is simple: address Social Security and Medicare first, then draw serious attention to our national debt—which continues to grow without any meaningful action.
Many suggest our national debt is a problem for future generations. I disagree. I believe it is very much our problem.
While I do have confidence that Social Security will ultimately be addressed, I am less confident about the path forward for Medicare and the broader debt situation.
As always, maintaining a disciplined approach, staying diversified, and aligning your strategy with your current consumption and future goals remains the foundation of successful retirement planning.
Final Thoughts
There are reasons for optimism: markets have reclaimed positive territory for 2026, earnings season is off to an encouraging start, and inflation showed signs of cooling at the wholesale level.
The path forward, however, remains tied to geopolitical developments. A clear and lasting resolution to the current conflict would go a long way toward stabilizing oil prices, easing inflation, and sustaining the recent market momentum.
On Social Security, the conversation in Washington is picking up- but meaningful reform remains overdue. The 2033 deadline is a planning reality, not a distant concern.
As always, maintaining a disciplined approach and aligning your portfolio with your current consumption needs and your longer-term goals remain the foundation of sound retirement planning.
Please feel free to share the Weekly Retirement Report with friends, neighbors, and colleagues.
Thank you for reading!
Paul Levin, CFP®, ChFC®, RICP®, TPCP®
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
All market data sourced from The Wall Street Journal, April 17, 2026.
