Key Takeaways
- Stock markets rebounded sharply last week on cease-fire hopes, bringing indexes close to flat for 2026.
- The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.317%, offering some stability in interest rates.
- Inflation remains elevated, with CPI rising 0.9% in March, driven in part by higher energy prices.
- Middle East tensions continue to influence oil prices, inflation, and overall market direction.
- First-quarter earnings season begins this week, with forward guidance likely to drive market sentiment.
Stock Market Update: Markets Rally on Cease-Fire Optimism
Markets raced higher last week, encouraged by the cease-fire announcement and hopes that it may mark the beginning of the end of the conflict. While few expected this past weekend’s talks to fully resolve the situation, most believe negotiations will take additional time, as the U.S. and Iran continue to have clearly conflicting objectives.
At this point, markets have rebounded to roughly flat levels for 2026—a notable recovery given recent volatility. As always, we encourage readers to view short-term market movements within the context of a long-term, disciplined retirement income strategy, rather than reacting to headlines.
Market Index Performance (Weekly & Year-to-Date)
| Index | Last Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 3.04% | (0.30%) |
| S&P 500 | 3.59% | (0.38%) |
| NASDAQ Composite | 4.75% | (1.39%) |
| Russell 2000 | 4.06% | 6.07% |
| Foreign Stocks (ex. US) | 4.24% | 6.38% |
| Emerging Markets | 6.98% | 10.66% |
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended the week at 4.317%, reflecting some stabilization in interest rates. Interest rate movements remain a key component of both fixed income positioning and broader retirement planning decisions.
Geopolitical Update: U.S.–Iran Conflict and Market Implications
As of Sunday morning, it appears the U.S. and Iran have left negotiations without an agreement. The primary issues under discussion remain:
- Clear and free passage through the Strait of Hormuz
- Israel continuing attacks on Lebanon
- Iran’s nuclear ambitions
- War reparation demands by Iran
At this stage, it does not appear Iran is backing down. Their control of the Strait of Hormuz continues to serve as meaningful leverage.
From a market perspective, this conflict remains a key driver of oil prices, inflation expectations, and investor sentiment. As we’ve discussed in prior weekly market updates, geopolitical events can create short-term volatility, but long-term investment outcomes are typically driven by discipline and proper allocation.
Inflation Update: March 2026 CPI Data & Rising Gas Prices
There were no major surprises in last week’s inflation data. Headline CPI, including food and energy, rose 0.9% in March. However, stripping out food and energy, the core CPI reading was much more subdued at 0.18%.
The impact at the gas pump is becoming increasingly noticeable. I typically ask the attendant for $50 to fill my tank—recently, that same $50 barely reached three-quarters of a tank.
Higher gas prices and consumer sentiment tend to move in opposite directions. The decline in consumer sentiment reported last week could eventually weigh on spending—which, at last check, accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. economic activity.
Inflation remains one of the most important variables in any retirement income plan.
Corporate Earnings Season: What to Watch This Week
27 S&P 500 companies kick off first-quarter earnings season this week, led by major banking institutions, including:
- JP Morgan
- Wells Fargo
- Citi
- Morgan Stanley
- PNC
- Bank of America
- Citizens
- Ally
This is typically where the rubber meets the road.
Expectations are for a solid earnings season. However, forward guidance will be especially important, as companies address the impact of inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and consumer trends.
Social Security Workshop
We would like to thank everyone who attended our Social Security seminar last week. The engagement and thoughtful questions made for a terrific event, and we truly appreciate the opportunity to help guide you through these important decisions. For those who could not attend, we encourage you to explore our resources on Social Security planning, as timing and strategy can have a meaningful impact on retirement outcomes.
We also want to extend a warm welcome to our new subscribers to the Retirement Refined Weekly Report. We are glad to have you with us and look forward to keeping you informed each week.
Final Thoughts: Outlook for Markets & Investors
There are positives to highlight—markets have shown resilience, earnings expectations remain constructive, and both businesses and consumers continue to invest and spend.
That said, the path forward remains closely tied to geopolitical developments.
A clear and timely resolution to the current conflict would go a long way toward stabilizing markets, easing inflation pressures, and improving investor confidence.
As always, maintaining a disciplined approach, staying diversified, and aligning your portfolio with your long-term goals remain the foundation of successful retirement planning.
The sooner stability returns, the better for markets—and for portfolios.
Please feel free to share the Weekly Retirement Report with friends, neighbors and colleagues.
Thank you for reading!
Paul Levin, CFP®, ChFC®, RICP®, TPCP®
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
All market data sourced from The Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2026.
