Key Takeaways
- The S&P 500 and NASDAQ continued to move higher as investors looked ahead to second-quarter earnings.
- Inflation reports released this week could significantly influence interest rate expectations.
- Corporate earnings season begins with high expectations once again.
- Artificial Intelligence continues evolving from infrastructure spending to companies capable of generating meaningful profits.
- The second half of 2026 should be shaped by four themes: earnings, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and the mid-term elections.
Market Overview
The stock market continued to demonstrate impressive resilience last week.
Despite renewed concerns surrounding the Middle East, higher oil prices, and rising Treasury yields, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both finished the week higher as investors shifted their attention toward the start of second-quarter earnings season.
The message from Wall Street appears straightforward: as long as corporate America continues delivering strong profits, investors remain willing to look beyond many of the short-term headlines. How much longer?
That doesn’t mean volatility has disappeared. It simply means earnings continue to be the market’s primary driver.
Market Performance: Last Week & Year-to-Date
| Index | Last Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | (0.41%) | +9.61% |
| S&P 500 | +1.17% | +10.59% |
| NASDAQ Composite | +1.79% | +13.14% |
| Russell 2000 | (0.59%) | +20.00% |
| Foreign Stocks | +0.10% | +8.79% |
| Emerging Markets | +1.78% | +22.22% |
| Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond | (0.35%) | +0.13% |
| Bloomberg Municipal Bond | (0.32%) | +1.91% |
The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield moved higher, ending the week at 4.561%.
WTI crude oil also rose approximately 4%, closing at $71.51 per barrel.
Inflation and Interest Rates
Last week’s headlines centered on renewed comments from the Administration suggesting the cease-fire may effectively be over.
That news pushed both oil prices and Treasury yields higher.
Interestingly, equity markets largely shrugged off the news and continued moving higher, illustrating just how focused investors currently are on corporate earnings.
Another encouraging development came from the Treasury market.
The U.S. government successfully auctioned approximately $119 billion of combined 3-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities with solid demand.
For now, investor concerns surrounding the government’s ability to finance its growing debt remain on the back burner.
This week, attention turns squarely toward inflation.
Three important economic reports are scheduled for release:
- Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- Wednesday: Producer Price Index (PPI)
- Thursday: Retail Sales
Current expectations are for inflation to continue moderating—a development that would likely be welcomed by both investors and the Federal Reserve.
Earnings Season Begins
Corporate America steps into the spotlight this week.
Among the companies scheduled to report are:
- JPMorgan Chase
- Bank of America
- Citi
- Wells Fargo
- Morgan Stanley
- GE Aerospace
- Johnson & Johnson
- Netflix
Expectations remain high.
Wall Street is once again anticipating earnings that exceed analysts’ estimates.
If companies continue delivering strong profits while offering constructive guidance for the remainder of the year, markets could receive another meaningful boost.
Four Market Themes to Watch During the Second Half of 2026
LPL Financial recently highlighted four major themes they believe investors should monitor during the remainder of the year.
1. Mid-Term Elections
Control of Congress will help shape future economic policy.
Whether Republicans maintain control, Democrats regain control, or government becomes divided could influence taxes, regulation, spending, and investor sentiment.
2. Resource Nationalism
This may be an unfamiliar term to many investors.
Resource nationalism refers to governments placing greater emphasis on controlling natural resources such as energy, rare earth minerals, metals, and other strategic commodities.
As countries increasingly view these resources as matters of national security and economic strength, investments tied to energy and real assets may become increasingly important.
3. Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence appears to be entering its next phase.
For the past two years, investors have rewarded companies building AI infrastructure.
Going forward, attention is likely to shift toward companies that can successfully monetize those investments and generate meaningful returns for shareholders.
In my opinion, this transition may ultimately prove more important than the initial AI build-out itself.
4. The Federal Reserve
Chairman Kevin Warsh certainly inherited a challenging environment.
He must balance elevated oil prices, record levels of business investment, resilient higher-income consumer spending, and inflation that has proven more stubborn than many expected.
His decisions over the coming months will likely influence both stock and bond markets well into 2027.
Final Thoughts
The second half of 2026 promises to be every bit as interesting as the first.
Corporate earnings, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, artificial intelligence, geopolitical developments, and the mid-term elections all have the potential to influence markets over the months ahead.
While there will undoubtedly be weeks when markets test investors’ patience, history has shown that successful investing is built on maintaining perspective and staying focused on long-term goals rather than short-term headlines.
One thing I’ve learned over the years is that markets continually adapt. New challenges arise, uncertainty captures the headlines, and investors begin wondering what comes next. Yet disciplined investors who remain focused on their long-term objectives have historically been rewarded.
As always, thank you for taking a few minutes each week to read our Retirement Report. I sincerely appreciate your continued confidence and the opportunity to be part of your retirement journey.
Until next week, stay invested, stay informed, and enjoy the journey to and during retirement.
Thank you for reading!
Paul Levin, CFP®, ChFC®, RICP®, TPCP®
Managing Principal
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
All market data sourced from The Wall Street Journal, July 10, 2026.
