Key Takeaways
- Stocks continued moving higher despite a mixed employment report.
- Lower oil prices continue to help ease inflation concerns.
- Artificial intelligence and resilient consumer spending remain the primary drivers of the market.
- Investors are beginning to focus on second-quarter earnings season and the Federal Reserve’s next move.
- Geopolitical concerns have eased—for now—but remain worth watching.
Market Overview
Markets continued to advance last week as investors remained encouraged by resilient business investment and continued spending by higher-income consumers.
While the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached another new high, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished June below their early-month peaks. That isn’t necessarily bad news. Markets rarely move in a straight line, and periods of consolidation often provide a healthier foundation for future gains.
As always, maintaining a diversified portfolio remains just as important during strong markets as it is during challenging ones.
Market Index Performance
| Index | Last Week | Last Month | Year-to-Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | +1.44% | +2.56% | +9.48% |
| S&P 500 | +1.39% | (2.02%) | +8.92% |
| NASDAQ Composite | +1.54% | (5.19%) | +10.53% |
| Russell 2000 | (0.93%) | +1.71% | +20.16% |
| Foreign Stocks | +1.52% | (0.88%) | +8.40% |
| Emerging Markets | (2.75%) | (7.71%) | +19.43% |
| Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond | (0.55%) | +0.09% | +0.43% |
| Bloomberg Municipal Bond | +0.06% | +0.56% | +2.21% |
The 10-Year U.S. Treasury remained range-bound, ending the week with a yield of 4.485%.
WTI crude oil continued its retreat, finishing the week at $68.78 per barrel.
Employment Update: A Mixed Picture
Last week’s employment reports delivered mixed signals.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed available jobs increased to 7.6 million, suggesting businesses continue looking for workers.
However, Friday’s Employment Report showed only 57,000 jobs were created during June, well below expectations.
Normally, weaker job growth would raise concerns about the economy. This time, investors viewed the report somewhat differently.
Slower job creation may reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year, which helped support both stocks and bonds.
The unemployment rate also declined to 4.2%, although much of that improvement resulted from approximately 2.5 million Americans leaving the workforce, rather than from stronger hiring.
Additionally, the average number of hours worked declined during June.
Taken together, these reports suggest the labor market remains healthy but is beginning to cool—a trend that will be worth monitoring during the second half of the year.
What’s Driving the Market?
Two themes continue to dominate the investment landscape.
First, higher-income consumers continue to spend despite higher interest rates and lingering inflation.
Second, businesses continue investing heavily in Artificial Intelligence infrastructure.
From data centers and cloud computing to semiconductors and software, corporate America is making enormous investments that many believe will improve productivity for years to come.
That combination has been the primary catalyst behind market gains throughout much of 2026.
Looking Ahead
Wall Street will spend the next several weeks debating where markets may finish the year.
Some optimistic forecasts call for the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 to 8,250, while many respected investment firms believe the index may finish closer to 7,600, near the highs reached earlier this summer.
As always, forecasts should be viewed as educated opinions—not guarantees.
Personally, I expect markets to remain somewhat choppy as investors balance strong corporate profits against inflation concerns, Federal Reserve policy, and the upcoming mid-term elections.
We’re also only a few weeks away from second-quarter earnings season, which should provide a current picture of how corporate America is performing.
Watching the Federal Reserve and the Middle Easts
Some market strategists continue to believe the Federal Reserve could become the biggest risk to markets if Chairman Kevin Warsh decides inflation remains too persistent to begin lowering interest rates.
At this point, I continue to believe Chairman Warsh will remain patient before acting on any change to interest rates.
Meanwhile, news surrounding the conflict involving Iran has quieted considerably.
With oil now trading below $70 per barrel, markets appear to believe the situation has stabilized.
Currently, an estimated 25 to 50 commercial ships are transiting the Strait of Hormuz each day, still well below the 100 to 130 ships that passed through daily before the conflict began.
Whether oil continues moving toward $60 per barrel or geopolitical tensions flare again remains anyone’s guess.
Frankly, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to separate headlines from reality.
Hopefully, we’ll soon put this conflict behind us and turn our attention toward the many other important issues facing our own country.
Thank you for reading!
Paul Levin, CFP®, ChFC®, RICP®, TPCP®
Managing Principal
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
All market data sourced from The Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2026.
