Week of November 17, 2025
Stocks finished the week mixed as the absence of economic reports, a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve, and renewed doubts around AI weighed on investor sentiment.
Last Week’s Market Performance:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.59%
- S&P 500: +0.50%
- NASDAQ Composite: -0.10%
- Russell 2000: -1.52%
- Foreign Stocks: +1.12%
- Emerging Markets: +0.82%
Bond yields crept higher, with the 10-Year U.S. Treasury ending the week at 4.15%.
Although the government reopened, investor focus quickly turned to the backlog of missing economic data and how that could affect the Fed’s December 10 rate decision.
Economic Data Delayed or Lost
The 43-day federal government shutdown disrupted the regular flow of economic data that markets rely on. Some key reports are delayed, while others may never be released:
Labor Market Reports
- September Jobs Report: Expected early October; delayed but now scheduled to be released this Thursday, November 20th.
- October Jobs Report: May never be released because federal agencies could not conduct normal surveys during the shutdown.
Inflation Reports
- October Consumer Price Index (CPI): Data collection halted during the shutdown. This report may not be published.
- October Producer Price Index (PPI): September and October readings were disrupted, reducing visibility into business-cost trends. The report was scheduled to be released on November 14th, last Friday. It was not released and there have been no updates regarding the timeline.
Consumer Activity
- Retail Sales (September & October): Data collection overlapped the shutdown, leading to both delays and potential data-quality issues.
- September- expected to be released alongside the September labor report, this upcoming Thursday.
- October- at risk of being skipped or issued as an incomplete estimate. Timeline is currently uncertain.
Manufacturing, Trade & Construction
- Trade Balance, Durable Goods, Construction Spending: Several late-summer and early-fall Census Bureau releases were delayed and are being rescheduled. September data should be published over the next several weeks.
Growth & Income Data
- GDP and Personal Income/Spending: These reports rely on many of the delayed or missing upstream data sources. Release timing and accuracy will be affected as agencies rebuild their calendars.
- Q3 GDP (July, August, September)- expected to be released soon, as most of the inputs were completed prior to the shutdown.
- October GDP- The USA does not release monthly GDP data. However, the absence of October source data means that the eventual Q4 GDP report (October, November, December) will not include data from October.
These reports are critically important as our current Federal Reserve Chair prefers to look at past data when deciding on interest rate policy.
The lack of clarity has pulled back expectations for a December rate cut and contributed to this week’s market volatility.
Looking Ahead: Nvidia & AI Spending
All eyes will be on Nvidia’s earnings, scheduled for release after the close on Wednesday. The results may influence the short-term direction of AI-related stocks.
Last week, Ben Smith and I attended a JP Morgan luncheon, where the firm shared its outlook for AI investment. JP Morgan expects continued capital spending in AI infrastructure to propel markets higher over the next year or two. They see little chance of a near-term recession and believe AI spending and strong consumer spending, particularly among affluent households, will keep growth steady.
Looking to next year, JP Morgan expects interest rates to rise modestly, with the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield remaining in the low-to-mid 4% range. They also anticipate a more dovish Fed Chair in 2026.
I have been writing for some time that the Fed’s inflation target of 2% should move closer to 3%.
Inflation in Focus Again
After the Republicans lost elections in NJ, NY, and Virginia, as expected, the administration is attempting to turn attention to the cost of living. Perhaps the government is realizing you simply cannot tell consumers there is no inflation and expect them to simply take your word for it.
Meanwhile, President Trump has floated the idea of sending $2,000 checks to Americans, using accumulated tariff revenue. Trump is also considering reducing tariffs on beef, coffee, nuts and dozens of other agricultural and food goods.
Sending consumers $2,000 may lead to additional inflation pressure as the money will certainly be spent quickly. While many lower-income consumers would benefit from the $2,000, it is simply a band-aid of a solution to longer term inflation.
Thank you for reading.
Please feel free to share our Weekly Retirement Blog with friends, family, and colleagues who might benefit from staying informed.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
All market data sourced from The Wall Street Journal, November 14, 2025.
