All eyes and ears were on Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report last Wednesday evening. The report did not disappoint, as record revenues and profits propelled the markets higher the next morning, until a significant midday reversal pulled most major stock indexes downward for the week.
The current concern: is too much money being plowed into the building out of Artificial Intelligence, and will profits justify the capital being spent? Many companies are issuing debt to finance the build out, which means future profits are vital to being able to service their interest payments and eventually retire the debt.
Debt concerns are growing louder. One example: Blue Owl, a major lender of Private Credit, developed a black eye as concerns about their credit portfolios surfaced. Blue Owl proposed merging a large publicly traded fund (Blue Owl Capital Corp., ticker OBDC) with a non-traded fund (Blue Owl Capital Corp II). Investors in the non-traded fund would have received shares of the publicly traded one, however the publicly traded fund was trading at about a 20% discount to its underlying net asset value. At the same time, the non-traded fund’s investors were facing restrictions on redemptions, which is a serious red flag.
Last Week’s Market Performance
For the week, there were few places for stock investors to hide:
-
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.50%
- S&P 500: -1.43%
- NASDAQ Composite: -2.12%
- Russell 2000: -0.41%
- Foreign Stocks: -2.63%
- Emerging Markets: -3.22%
Bonds and the Fed
Bonds held their own last week as the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index rose 0.26%.
Bond yields have noticeably retreated in 2025. On December 31, 2024, the 2-Year US Treasury yielded 4.24% and now sits at 3.505%. The 10-year began the year at 4.537%, and closed this last Friday at 4.067%
The decline in bond yields, along with overall bond interest rates being somewhat “normal”, have contributed to strong year-to-date bond performance.
One driver: The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has been issuing longer dated bonds to finance our debt needs. This has helped pull intermediate- and long-term yields lower, contributing to overall bond performance. Last week, however, the Fed announced a shift toward allocating more to shorter maturity Treasury securities. If sustained, this change could add some volatility to longer-term bond prices.
And of course, the question remains: will the Fed cut rates in December?
There’s a 50/50 chance, but I’ll refrain from guessing. Regardless of the decision, a new Fed Chair is set to take over in May 2026.
Medicare Premium Increases
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released premiums, deductibles and coinsurance amounts for Medicare Part A and Part B and the Medicare income-related adjustment amounts.
Part B, the base monthly premium will increase from $185/month to $202.90, an increase of $17.90, over 9%.
CMS also published the income-related adjustment brackets for higher-income beneficiaries. These 2026 Medicare costs will be based on your 2024 Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI).
Here’s where it matters:
- If you’re single and your 2024 MAGI was just $1 over $109,000, you’ll pay more.
- For married couples filing jointly, the threshold is $218,000.
The more your income exceeds these levels, the higher your premiums for both Medicare Part B and Part D.
According to CMS, about 8% of Medicare beneficiaries will be subject to these additional higher costs.
To view all 2026 premiums and deductibles, click here to read the November 14, 2025 article: CMS Release.
Happy Thanksgiving!
On behalf of Retired Refined LLC., I would like to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving holiday. I am grateful to have many of you who read our weekly retirement blog as clients.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
All market data sourced from The Wall Street Journal, October 3, 2025.
