Stocks snapped a five-week losing streak, with all major indexes moving higher on growing optimism surrounding a potential de-escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict.
This shift in sentiment helped drive a broad-based rally across equities, as investors responded to the possibility of reduced geopolitical risk and improved market stability.
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📊 Market Index Snapshot (Weekly Returns & YTD Performance)
| Index | Last Week | Year-to-Date |
| Dow Jones | +2.85% | (3.35%) |
| S&P 500 | +3.18% | (4.01%) |
| Nasdaq | +4.14% | (6.13%) |
| Russell 2000 | +3.07% | +1.73% |
| Foreign Stocks | +4.47% | +2.05% |
| Emerging Markets | +2.48% | +3.40% |
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Oil Prices, Interest Rates & Jobs Data
WTI crude oil finished the week at $112.06, spiking more than 11% last Friday following comments from President Trump late Thursday evening.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.345%, reflecting continued sensitivity to inflation expectations and global uncertainty.
Although the stock market was closed last Friday, the latest U.S. jobs report showed:
- 178,000 jobs added
- Unemployment rate declined to 4.3%
This signals a labor market that remains resilient, even amid geopolitical tensions.
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Looking Ahead: Earnings Growth & AI Investment Boom
We are only a few weeks away from the start of corporate earnings season, with consensus expectations calling for:
- 12.3% earnings growth in Q1
According to LPL Financial, S&P 500 companies have historically beaten earnings estimates more than 90% of the time, suggesting potential upside surprises.
Key Growth Drivers:
- Energy sector profits (supported by rising oil prices)
- Continued expansion in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector
Expectations for the AI industry are significant, with capital expenditures projected to exceed $650 billion in 2026. This reinforces the likelihood that the “Magnificent 7” stocks will continue to lead earnings growth.
Additional tailwinds include:
- Higher tax refunds for many households
- Continued consumer spending strength
- Ongoing hope for a resolution to geopolitical conflicts
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Social Security Update:
Proposed Changes to the Earnings Test
The Social Security earnings test currently limits how much individuals under full retirement age can earn without reducing their benefits.
- 2026 limit: $24,480 in annual earnings before benefits are reduced
Senator Rick Scott has introduced the “Senior Citizens’ Freedom to Work Act,” which would:
👉 Allow individuals to earn unlimited income while receiving Social Security benefits before full retirement age
👉 Eliminate benefit reductions tied to earned income
My Perspective
There are both pros and cons to this proposal:
Potential Downsides:
- Individuals may lock in a permanently reduced benefit
- Lower lifetime income and reduced survivor benefits
Potential Advantages:
- Provides short-term income flexibility, especially for lower-income individuals
- Ability to earn wages while collecting benefits
Some may choose to claim early and invest the proceeds, although in practice, many individuals tend to spend rather than invest these funds. This legislation is still developing, but in my view, it has a reasonable chance of passing.
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Final Thoughts: Market Momentum vs. Uncertainty
The recent rally highlights how quickly markets can respond to shifting geopolitical expectations.
Key themes to watch:
- Oil prices and inflation trends
- War de-escalation or escalation?
- Corporate earnings results
- AI-driven growth
- Federal Reserve policy outlook
While optimism is building, markets remain sensitive to both economic data and global events.
As always, staying disciplined and focused on long-term strategy remains critical.
Please feel free to share the Weekly Retirement Report with friends, family and colleagues.
Thank you for reading.
Paul Levin, CFP®, ChFC®, RICP®, TPCP®
Managing Principal
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
All market data sourced from The Wall Street Journal, April 3, 2026.
