August Jobs Report
The August jobs report showed the U.S. economy added a dismal 22,000 jobs—a disappointing number that signals a cooling labor market. The unemployment rate edged higher from 4.2% to 4.3%. As we have been stating for months, Corporate America is only hiring, as necessary.
Many are anticipating the slowdown in hiring will reaccelerate after we truly know and feel the impact of tariff policies on corporate profits and consumer spending.
While many consumers have expressed significant concerns about the impact of the Trump administration policies, spending by most has continued. The top 10% of U.S. households account for 50% of all consumer spending and continue to spend.
Federal Reserve and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve meets September 16–17 and is widely expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% on the back of weakening job creation numbers.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury plummeted last Friday to 4.07%. We began 2025 with a yield of 4.57%, briefly moving up to 4.8%.
There have been times in the past, after a Fed rate cut, longer-term (10-Year) yields have risen. The concern: lower rates may accelerate consumer and business spending, leading to higher inflation.
If the economy is approaching a “soft” landing, meaning a temporary slowdown in jobs and economic activity, rates moving lower may provide positive stimulation.
There are many economists and investors who believe tariffs and the balance of the current administration’s policies will prove negative for economy and the markets.
Stock Market Performance Last Week
Key Economic Reports to Watch This Week
- Small Business Optimism (Tuesday): Small businesses employ nearly half of U.S. workers.
- Mortgage Applications (Wednesday): It will be interesting to see if applications increase after last week’s move lower in rates?
- Producer Price Index (PPI) (Wednesday): Last month this number spiked higher. Perhaps one of the most important numbers going forward, as Corporate America will decide whether to absorb the additional tariff costs or pass the costs to consumers.
- Consumer Price Index (Thursday): This report will have to spike for the Fed not to raise rates on September 17th.
- Consumer Sentiment (Friday): A window into household confidence and spending behavior.
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As always, thank you for reading. Please share this retirement market update with friends, family, and colleagues who may benefit.
All data sourced from the Wall Street Journal, September 5, 2025.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested directly.
